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亚马逊云账号(www.2km.me)_The Week Ahead: GDP, US CPI, China inflation

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GDP in focusTHE third quarter (Q3) gross domestic product (GDP) figures will be the main highlight this week, which is packed with other data releases including the industrial production index (IPI), manufacturing sales and unemployment rate for September 2021.Bank Negara will release the international reserves as at Oct 29 today and the GDP figures for Q3 on Friday.The country’s GDP expanded by 16.1% year-on-year in the second quarter of 2021. Economists generally expect the GDP for Q3 to be slower sequentially.Bloomberg estimates a contraction of 2.2% year-on-year while UOB Global Economics & Markets Research estimates a contraction of 3.5% year-on-year.TA Securities Research expects GDP growth for Q3 to decline by 4.9% year-on-year.On a quarterly basis, the overall economy is expected to decline by 0.6% quarter-on-quarter (not seasonally adjusted), compared with 1.9% quarter-on-quarter previously.China inflationA slew of data is due from China this week including producer price index (PPI), consumer price index (CPI), new yuan loans and M2 money supply.IHS Markit said China’s October CPI and PPI data will be eagerly assessed by analysts keen to see if higher prices from China could feed further global inflation pressures.Markets are forecasting a slight pick-up in rates of inflation compared to September, which saw price pressures surprise on the downside.The latest Caixin China General PMI showed quicker increases in both input and output prices in October, as firms continued to pass higher costs from supply constraints, material shortages and energy through to clients.Bloomberg estimates PPI for October to grow 12.3% year-on-year from 10.7% in September. It also expects inflation to expand 1.3% year-on-year in October from 0.7% in September.US CPIINFLATION and consumer sentiment will be the focus in the United States this week.IHS Markit said the CPI and PPI updates as well as consumer inflation expectations will help gauge the extent to which price pressures are mounting and whether the announced taper pace of US$10bil (RM 41.6bil) will need to be adjusted in the coming months.With indications the economy is picking up speed again in October, according to the US Composite PMI, it is hoped that consumers may regain some of their lost confidence despite a further building of inflationary pressures as the supply crisis continues.Inflation is expected to have risen from 0.4% month-on-month to 0.5%, with the core measure also edging higher from 0.2% to 0.3%.Monetary policyBANK of Thailand (BoT) will decide on its monetary policy this week. It has maintained its key policy rate at 0.5% at its last meeting in September.According to the latest Bloomberg survey, all economists polled expect BoT to stay on hold in November.UOB believes BoT is likely to keep its accommodative monetary policy stance unchanged for the rest of the year; although an unexpected worsening of macroeconomic fundamentals could prompt a 25-basis-point rate cut in December 2021.

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